MUMBAI: According to one of the largest foreign institutional investors Morgan Stanley, there is a belief that BJP can pass the GST Bill by this July as it has got an ample number of Member of Parliament (MP) to pass the bill.
Since 2015, the India’s most significant reform in two decades has been in an incomplete state and the main reason behind this because of the absence of Indian National Congress’ (INC) support. The Upper House is one of the main reasons for the lack of votes required to pass the bill, while there’s no problem from the Parliament’s Lower House as they have a majority here. Once passed, this bill will change the overall GDP of the country impressively.
All those Upper House members who are opposing the passage of the bill should be reduced as this is the only solution for the clearance of the bill. At present, there are 91 members in the same and for the bill to get cleared, we need to reduce the count by 82.
As per the recent report to clients, analysts of Morgan Stanley, Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi said that “We forecast that to happen by July 2016.”
Basically, from 245 votes, what the government needs is 123 from the Upper House members, i.e. a bit higher than 50% and presently two-thirds of the Upper House give votes as in 163 in a full house. Hence, if all the members are present and voting, there will be not more than 82 members who can oppose.
“We calculate that the BJP will gain two seats, the INC will lose seven, and the BJP gain another seven via newly nominated members in the Upper House (a prerogative vested with the government of the day). The net result of this and gains by BJP allies increases the number of those supporting the bill, from 97 to 110, and decreases those opposing to 81,” conveyed by Stanley.
According to Morgan Stanley, increase in the proportion of the members by two-thirds will give a positive hope towards the passage of the bill.
Here are the reasons:
As per the live scenario, Upper House incorporates 60 seats in a combination of BJP and its associates and if we talk about the parties interested in GST, there are 97 votes we are having in favor. Summing up all, with the upcoming retirements included, the count will be increased up to 110 by the end of July.
In the first plot, participations will be full i.e. all members will cast their vote. From 97 seats, the increment goes up to 110 by BJP and its allies. Moreover, there’s another chunk of people having 44 members who are ready to support the bill. So, the next count is 154. Other than this, 9 are on the list that may or may not favour i.e. they are neutral. But, if we get these 9 votes more, then these 163 votes would be beneficial by July 2016.
Coming towards the second scenario, the government will need 123 votes in the case when 67 of the current Upper House members of the INC will refuse to vote. If this happens, the bill can even be passed between April and May, during the second part of the budget session. We can think of this as the BJP along with supportive parties will be having 107 seats in the Rajya Sabha by April. So, technically they will only need 16 other seats, which they already have.
A third scenario may come when there won’t be any disputes between the BJP & the INC and they both agree to clear the bill.
“The second and third scenario can play out anytime from the start of the budget session this week. A persistently gridlocked parliament, or members of parliament who currently support the bill but change their mind, are risks to our views,” said by the reports of Morgan.
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