In the Lok Sabha, a written question has been asked about the impact of GST and Demonetization on employment opportunities, while the Labour Bureau data clearly indicated that the employment possibilities fell down after the two important decision taken by the government, the Ministry of Labour and Employment clearly denied possessing any data regarding the matter.
According to the data provided by Labour Bureau by the ministry in the Lok Sabha, it proves that under the Prime Minister’s Employment Generation Programme (PMEGP) the employment possibilities fell sharply as compared to the previous year. As in data, it is stated that in 2016-17 the number of people who got employment is 407,840, whereas, in the first three-quarter of 2017-18 only 208,576 persons were covered by PMEGP.
Similarly, the person-days data generated under Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) also seen the downfall in the first three-quarter of 2017-18 as compared to the 23,583 lakh persons-days data originated in 2016-17. And the employment figure from April to 11 December 2017 was just 16,029.
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However, under the Pandit Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana (DDU-GKY) the employment figure for the candidates who are placed in jobs after the training session during the first three quarters of 2017 almost kept pace with the annual average as 64,967 people were placed till December 2017 in comparison to 84,900 through the previous year, it is the data on placement of skilled and trained persons under Deen Dayal Antyodaya Yojana National Urban Livelihood Mission (DAY-NULM) which clearly indicates that how the demonetization has an impact on economic activity and job possibility. The data of employment from April to November 2017 under DAY-NULM is 69, 255 which is very less as compared to the data received in 2016-17, which stands at 151,901.
The Manufacturing Sector Also Get Affected
If look at the sector-wise data, then manufacturing sector also suffered major job loss during 2016-17 and 2017-18 after the demonetization operation. From registering an increase of 83,000 in the October-December 2016 quarter and a subsequent 1.02 lakh in the January-March 2017 quarter, the sector witnessed sharp reduction and nearly 87,000 jobs were lost in 2017-18 as the impact of demonetization on the business due to which many small business units get close because of the less availability of liquid cash. During this period, transport sector also saw fall of nearly 3,000.
Overall, between January and July 2017, the manufacturing sector was inactive indicating the impact of demonetization. During these two quarters, only about 2.49 lakh jobs were added and considering that the number was 0.32 lakh in July-September 2016 quarter, 1.22 lakh in October-December 2017 quarter and 1.85 lakh in the January-April 2017 quarter, the sharp fall to 0.64 lakh in the April-July 2017 quarter indicates that the employment got affected due to the less possibility of currency.
The Ministry’s Response On Questions
In the response to the question asked in Lok Sabha, Minister Santosh Kumar Gangwar said, “the estimated losses suffered by huge number of labourers engaged in various unorganised sectors in the country due to demonetisation” and “whether a large number of workers engaged in unorganised sector have been rendered unemployed due to demonetisation and had to migrate to their villages. There is no such estimation available at the Central level. And that “employment in unorganized sector depends on the variety of factors and it is difficult to pinpoint the degree of impact of demonetization thereon.”. He also stated that there was no such input available with his ministry.
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In the response to another query on the impact of GST on the job market, Gangwar said, “GST has provided a significant opportunity to improve economic growth momentum by removing barriers to trade, business, and related economic activities.”
Employment Opportunities Re-examined
Gangwar said, that while GST rolled out from July 1, 2017, is expected to lead to greater economic growth and consequent increasing in employment generation opportunities for the vast pool of young population of the country, he admitted his inability to put numbers to the claim saying “it is not possible to ascertain the impact of GST on employment right now”.
He also said, “Labour Bureau has also been conducting quarterly quick employment surveys in eight selected labour intensive and export-oriented sectors namely textiles, metals, automobiles, gems and jewellery, transport, IT/BPO and handloom/powerloom.”
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